As usual when it comes to details on armed conflict in Mindanao, you won’t find much of anything in the Manila papers about this – here’s a lone report. The two articles above do a better job of capturing more detail. A lot of journalists have struggled, and many continue to struggle, to bring more to light; a lot of journalists have died in the process.

I provided some details on the March and October bombings here – in all cases the same Agus-Kibawae line has been involved. The October bombing, if you recall, took down the whole Mindanao grid practically. But the most recent is pretty amazing in that three structures were struck on the same night. Here’s a Transco single-line diagram of the relevant area from my previous post.

The ERC has been unable, over the years, to hold NPC/Transco to effective standards of delivery service. Generally, the transmission and generation system was not able to meet NPC’s own planning criteria. And even to the extent they were able to meet those standards, the ERC was unable to come up with an appropriate pricing mechanism, in my opinion, for recognizing differences in service received by customers in different locations. It’s simply not fair to selected customers.

And its been the ECs (electric cooperatives) and their rural customers that have been getting the bum end of the deal in this respect.

Let me tell you a couple of stories.

I can’t yet afford to build a house big enough for the whole family to live in on the property we recently bought up in the hills of Casisang, Malaybalay, Bukidnon. So we’re renting a house in town as we slowly build on the property, what we can, when we can.

We just moved, about a kilometer, from one rental house in Bgy. Sumpong to another, just off Fortich Street, right across from Bukidnon State University. The water pressure at the new location is awful; it was just fine up the street at the old location. While I was in Manila recently, by wife bought a water pump so our clothes washer will work, but the neighbors complained to the water company and they came out and disconnected us till the pump was removed. (I was impressed, actually, with the water company’s actions). But here’s the issue – one pays the same for water in both places, but gets drastically different service.

The cooperatives have been getting a worse deal. I know of multiple, specific sub-transmission lines where ECs served from those lines incur not only frequent interruptions, but the duration of outages can be atrociously long. The reason is that NPC/Transco doesn’t properly maintain those lines. Now, I understand that NPC/Transco has budget limits they have to deal with. So they prioritize. OK. But if it’s your fault – or your choice – to inadequately maintain the facilities serving me, then please don’t charge me the same price you charge those you choose to serve more reliably.

And here’s why it gets even worse for cooperatives. I was in the Visayas recently, somewhere on the Cebu-Negros-Panay grid, which has a generation capacity problem. There was a brown-out at one of the ECs and the GM told me NPC was short of capacity that day. I asked how they choose whom to interrupt in that case. He said NPC/Transco has a priority listing and that the coop was always the first to be interrupted. When I asked who determines the priority, he shrugged. It’s very clear that loads on Cebu – and I expect particular loads on Cebu – get priority. The less economically developed provincial areas seem to be the ones getting the highest priority of interruption. It’s generally the same ones that get the highest levels of interruption due to transmission failures. It’s a double whammy for people living in the outlying provinces. It’s a double whammy for the coops.

At least on the supply side (if not on the transmission side), ECs have an opportunity to route around the regulator. Because supply is not price-regulated and ECs are now being presented multiple, alternative supply choices, they should be able to achieve price discrimination for differing levels of supply reliability.

But it won’t be easy. For the moment, no one seems to be offering “full-requirements” future supply. So the ECs and the DUs will have to craft together their own portfolio of resources to insure reliability.

In any event, the regulator will become irrelevant. The problem becomes one of insuring an effective market – and there is no guarantee we will be able to achieve that any better than we achieved an effective regulator.

This Mindanews report says the following lines tripped:

• Agus 2-Kibawe lines 1 and 2
• Abaga-Agus 2 lines 1 and 2
• Abaga-Agus 6 lines 1 and 2
• Abaga-Tagoloan
• Abaga-Aurora
• Abaga-Lugait-Tagoloan

This first graphic is a zoomed in portion of a 2003 Napocor Grid Map showing the central Mindanao area.

Now, the Agus 2 – Kibawe line is an infamous line. Back in March of this year:

“Tower Number 19 along the Agus 2-Kibawe 138KV line was bombed and toppled around 11:30 in the evening on Tuesday March 13, 2007 at Barangay Sugod, Marawi City with the use of improvised high-powered explosives”

Back in December 2004, Napocor President Ortiz was dispatched to Mindanao after a massive blackout occurred one day after the deadly public market bombing in General Santos. Napocor reported to the press that it was not terrorist related but:

“there was however a sudden “transient high restive line fault” along the Abaga-Agus 2 to Agus-Kibawe that resulted to the tripping and overloading of other lines”

I’m sure people were antsy about the Dec ‘04 being terrorist related because back in April of 2003 towers were damaged along the Agus-Kibawe 138 kV circuit.

Here is a slide from the 2004 Transmission Development Plan showing that terrorist activities on the Agus-Kibawe line caused Napocor to plan a new alternative transmission line between Abaga and Kibawe to the east.

Now, looking at the grid map, it’s clear that my post earlier today was wrong when I said: “Nine 138 kV circuits is essentially the whole transmission system.” Clearly, nine circuits is a minority of the transmission lines in Mindanao. But they are key and at the heart of the system.

[Updates in comments below]

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