Comments on: Sales Price for Kepco Cebu Coal-fired Electricity http://asianenergyadvisors.com/2008/09/08/sales-price-for-kepco-cebu-coal-fired-electricity/ Focused on the Philippine Electricity Sector Tue, 25 May 2010 12:19:38 +0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Nick Nichols http://asianenergyadvisors.com/2008/09/08/sales-price-for-kepco-cebu-coal-fired-electricity/comment-page-1/#comment-35310 Nick Nichols Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:19:28 +0000 http://asianenergyadvisors.com/?p=1183#comment-35310 I've updated my calculations for the Visayas LRAC forecast and the KSPC Rate forecast. The changes are described in the Comments section of the spreadsheet <a href="http://www.editgrid.com/user/nicknich3/LRAC">here</a>. That spreadsheet is dynamic - so that link always contains my latest iterations on this.<br><br>This latest analysis shows that the LRAC will be lower than the calculated KSPC rate. So I'm now wondering if the KSPC rate has been modified from the formulas that appeared in the ERC Decision. Or maybe there's something else going on that I don't understand or see yet.<br><br>Heck, I'll just copy/paste the change notes here:<br><br><blockquote>I failed to set Capacity Fee constant - fixed. <br><br>I've set Exchange Rate for mid-2008 at 45:1 and let it float with PPP.<br><br>I've added data from US CPI & PPI. For now I'm setting 2009 CPI & PPI at approximate current levels, dropping them both back to a long-term constant value of 4.0% starting in 2010. I'm setting Philippine CPI at 9.0% for for 2009, dropping it back to a long term level of 7.5%<br><br>I'm setting the Globalpower Newcastle index to $150/mt for mid-2008, dropping it 10% in 2009, another 10% in 2010, and then letting it escalate at US$ CPI. The Coal Forward curves 2009 and 2010 were in backwardation at the beginning of the year - I'm assuming they still are, thus the 10% drops which reflects the approximate backwardation that existed back in January this year.</blockquote> I've updated my calculations for the Visayas LRAC forecast and the KSPC Rate forecast. The changes are described in the Comments section of the spreadsheet here. That spreadsheet is dynamic – so that link always contains my latest iterations on this.

This latest analysis shows that the LRAC will be lower than the calculated KSPC rate. So I'm now wondering if the KSPC rate has been modified from the formulas that appeared in the ERC Decision. Or maybe there's something else going on that I don't understand or see yet.

Heck, I'll just copy/paste the change notes here:

I failed to set Capacity Fee constant – fixed.

I've set Exchange Rate for mid-2008 at 45:1 and let it float with PPP.

I've added data from US CPI & PPI. For now I'm setting 2009 CPI & PPI at approximate current levels, dropping them both back to a long-term constant value of 4.0% starting in 2010. I'm setting Philippine CPI at 9.0% for for 2009, dropping it back to a long term level of 7.5%

I'm setting the Globalpower Newcastle index to $150/mt for mid-2008, dropping it 10% in 2009, another 10% in 2010, and then letting it escalate at US$ CPI. The Coal Forward curves 2009 and 2010 were in backwardation at the beginning of the year – I'm assuming they still are, thus the 10% drops which reflects the approximate backwardation that existed back in January this year.

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