For the week ending Jun 17, the average weekly ex-post price was P5,213/MWh – that’s about $110/MWh.
But let’s put that into perspective and look at some trends. Bear with me on these graphs – there’s a hole for the 5 month period from the middle of November 2006 to the middle of April 2007 when PEMC did not report daily prices. If anyone has the data, pass it on and I’ll fill it in.
First, here’s a chart of the 7-day trailing average and the 28-day trailing averge, just to set the stage.
But here is the interesting stuff. I’ll talk about the following chart. It’s a bit complex, I apologize, but hang with me on this.
As of June 17, the trailing 28-day average was P5,353/MWh. The initial 28-day average at the start of the market last year was P2,625. The historical total average since the beginning of the market is P4,233.
In the chart I have expressed prices as a 28-day trailing average and I have normalized prices to the historical average of P4,233 (which is represented by the green line at 100%) just so we can see where we stand relative to that average.
So we are now at a price level that is 126% of historical average. The inaugural 28-day average was 62% of the historical average to-date.
I’ve also looked at volatility and for my purposes here I’m measuring volatility as the standard deviation of the trailing 28-day day-over-day percent changes in price. It’s just a measure of how much daily prices are jumping around over a trailing 28-day period.
Volatility for the most recent 28-day period was 37% compared to a historic average volatility of 59%. So price volatility has trended down from the first 4-5 months of market operation.
Summary – prices are running 26% above historical average; volatility is running a whopping 37% below average.
My worksheet is here. The graphs are dynamically linked, so they may change over time as I modify that sheet.