Asian Energy Advisors

I’m starting another experiment. I’ve always been intrigued by the University of Iowa’s work with the Iowa Electronic Markets and its predictive abilities.

So I’ve started a predictive market for the Napocor asset sale prices.

The first “stock” to be traded is Magat with an initial price of $360 million (arbitrarily set at $1000/kW). There’s a scale of 1:1,000,000 on the stock price; so $360 represents $360 million. I will add other assets.

Inklingmarkets, the firm that hosts the market, indicates that we need at least about twelve participants to have a meaningful market - so dive in; and let’s see if we can get there.

The purpose is for the “crowd” to buy and sell shares (using fictitious money) based one’s view of what the final award price will be for each asset. Of course, as the time progresses you can change your view by buying more at a higher price, dumping what you’ve got, or selling short.

I’m not exactly sure how to manage this market, but we’ll figure it out as we go. So don’t hesitate to get your feet wet and experiment.