The key take-away on the last line of my previous post, of course, is that the anticipated EBITDA (per kW of capacity) on Masinloc must be a lot lower than for Mirant’s NPC IPP contracts.
Here’s another take on the Mirant numbers. $370 million EBITDA on 2200 MW yields $168/kW-Yr. That, essentially, is the cost of capacity out of those plants, excluding fixed and variable O&M and fuel.
For discussion purposes, let’s say fixed O&M is about $25/kW. That puts the price of Mirant capacity at $193/kW-Year – which is a little steep in California market terms.
But that sets a benchmark – or certainly a data point – on the price of capacity in the Philippines.
Brainstorming a bit: The YNN bid was 70% (on a $/kW basis) of the Mirant valuations. Let’s say, for discussion, that the ultimate Masinloc price will be 60% of the Mirant valuations. That leads to a market price of baseload capacity of $116/kW-Yr.
Keep that benchmark in mind as move forward.