Asian Energy Advisors

The key take-away on the last line of my previous post, of course, is that the anticipated EBITDA (per kW of capacity) on Masinloc must be a lot lower than for Mirant’s NPC IPP contracts.

Here’s another take on the Mirant numbers. $370 million EBITDA on 2200 MW yields $168/kW-Yr.  That, essentially, is the cost of capacity out of those plants, excluding fixed and variable O&M and fuel. 

For discussion purposes, let’s say fixed O&M is about $25/kW.  That puts the price of Mirant capacity at $193/kW-Year - which is a little steep in California market terms.

But that sets a benchmark - or certainly a data point - on the price of capacity in the Philippines.

Brainstorming a bit: The YNN bid was 70% (on a $/kW basis) of the Mirant valuations.  Let’s say, for discussion, that the ultimate Masinloc price will be 60% of the Mirant valuations.  That leads to a market price of baseload capacity of $116/kW-Yr.

Keep that benchmark in mind as move forward.