Interesting phenomenon happening in California this year. Heavy hydro flows are stressing the Ancillary Services (A/S) markets that rely on on-line generation – such as regulating and spinning reserves. Those A/S prices are rising substantially with increased hydro dispatch and less-available on-line thermal resources and more limited system ramping capability. (see CAISO’s June Market Monitoring Report – pdf)
This type of phenomenon will have no impact on the Visayas which is predominately thermal. It will affect Luzon.
But this has really interesting implications to Mindanao. If I were an IPP looking at Mindanao (out into the future, of course), I would certainly take a look at the value of the A/S services there. In wet years, thermal resources will be able to maximize A/S revenues; in dry years, of course, their energy (and capacity) value will be high.