Oh boy. Get ready for a ride here in the Philippines. Volatility. Uncertainty. Hedge strategies. Trends and spikes.
For the past five years, supporting certain California market participants, I have delved into the analytic depths of standard deviations, Black models, Monte Carlo, Forwards, Futures, and options.
I was a able to return to the surface, gasping for breath, mind you, but alive nevertheless.
Nassim Taleb reminds us in his engaging book published the year before last, Fooled By Randomness, that philosopher Karl Popper had many problems with statistics and statisticians and refused to accept the notion that knowledge can always increase with incremental information.
the take-away: Use statistics and inductive methods to make aggresive bets, but it would be insane to use them to manage your risk and exposure.